A look at Texas football’s bowl game choices ahead of the Big 12 title.
Texas Longhorns bowl scenarios ahead of the Big 12 championship game vs Oklahoma State
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The Longhorns’ 11 victories in 2023 are the most since their national championship appearance in 2009.
The college football championship week has arrived. Some teams had one last week to earn their spots in various bowl games this season, including the College Football Playoff.
One of those teams with a championship game on Saturday is the No. 7 Texas Longhorns (11-1). To cap off what has been Texas’ finest season in years, the Longhorns will face No. 19 Oklahoma State for the Big 12 championship. Eleven wins is the most since the 2009 team, who advanced to the BCS national title game.
With four unbeaten teams ranked ahead of the Longhorns, the Red River game loss to No. 13 Oklahoma hangs huge ahead of the postseason. Here’s a look at the Longhorns’ postseason options heading of the Big 12 championship game.
Can Texas make the College Football Playoff?
Yes, the Longhorns are in the running if a few things go right for the teams ahead of them in the rankings. If No. 4 Florida State loses the ACC championship game against No. 14 Louisville despite the absence of former Heisman Trophy finalist Jordan Travis. Things get even more fascinating if No. 3 Washington falls to No. 5 Oregon in the Pac-12 championship game.
Two of the teams ranked ahead of the Longhorns would be 12-1 in that scenario. If Texas defeats Oklahoma State on Saturday, they will have an even record and be eligible for the College Football Playoff. If No. 1 Georgia and No. 2 Michigan win the SEC and Big Ten championship games, respectively, a College Football Playoff field of Georgia, Michigan, Oregon, and Texas may be formed.
Can Texas compete in a New Year’s Six bowl game?
This is the Longhorns’ most likely scenario. In this scenario, Florida State, Georgia, and Michigan all win their respective championship games, and the Pac-12 champion defeats Texas.
The Fiesta, Orange, Peach, and Cotton bowl games have been added to the College Football Playoff Selection Committee’s New Year’s Six. Only one of those has a definite conference affiliation – Orange – and would see an ACC squad versus Notre Dame or a highly ranked SEC or Big Ten team. The remainder are at-large bids for teams in the top 12 or so.
If the Longhorns win the Big 12, they’ll be a near-certainty to play in the Cotton Bowl on December 29 at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas. It’s the only bowl game on that day, and the Longhorns are a big draw. A Cotton Bowl trip would almost certainly pit the squad against an SEC opponent, most likely No. 8 Alabama or No. 9 Missouri.
Texas, on the other hand, could end up playing in the other two at-large bowl games. Potential opponents in a Peach or Fiesta bowl scenario include Alabama, Missouri, or No. 6 Ohio State.
Which bowl games are most likely for Texas?
Of all of these scenarios and assuming Texas wins the Big 12, the Cotton Bowl makes the most sense. A Florida State win on Saturday all but seals this scenario. That’d make the College Football Playoff a very long shot but keep an at-large New Year’s Six bowl quite likely.
If the committee decides against the Cotton Bowl, the Fiesta Bowl is more plausible, given the history of top-ranked Big 12 teams making that game as an at-large selection. For the 2020 and 2021 college football seasons, Iowa State faced Oregon and Oklahoma State faced Notre Dame.
