When the College Football Playoff field is released, Texas might be a significant snub.
If you had told anyone at Texas in August that they would beat Alabama in Tuscaloosa, lose only once in a close game against a top-15 team, and had the chance to win the Big 12 championship with a 12-1 record, they would have taken it without hesitation.
Not only would that have been one of the best seasons for any Texas team in the last 30 years, but it would have comfortably qualified the Longhorns for every previous College Football Playoff.
Instead, because it occurred this season, they may be left out in the cold.
As the NCAA football playoffs’ championship weekend unfolds, one thing appears clear: If all of the favorites win their conference championship games, Texas is certain to finish fifth. Longhorns, you’ve had a good season. Enjoy your time at the Cotton Bowl.
After nine years of controversy-free play, the 10th and last edition of the four-team playoff could produce a true outcry that not only supports expansion to 12 teams next year, but also explains Texas’ haste to overtake the Big 12.
Life will surely be more harder for the Longhorns when they join the SEC next year. Meeting Florida, Georgia, and Texas A&M will be very different from meeting Kansas, Iowa State, and Baylor.
However, if Texas is eliminated from the playoffs this year, the blame will not be limited to the 75-yard drive they gave up to Oklahoma in the final 77 seconds of the Red River Rivalry. It will be the Big 12’s general weakness that keeps them out.
As of now, the Longhorns have only two victories over teams listed in the top-25 of the CFP. One of them was the aforementioned 34-24 victory over Alabama, which is perhaps the finest win of the season. The other, a 33-30 overtime victory over No. 25 Kansas State, isn’t doing anything to help.
Still, a win over No. 18 Oklahoma State on Saturday might be good enough to bring Texas into the College Football Playoff. It has only brought Texas to No. 7 this year, one spot behind Ohio State, who lost to Michigan last weekend. Simply put, this indicates that Texas will require assistance.
Texas coach Steve Sarkisian is speaking the truth. In public, he’s focused on the possibility to win the Big 12, something the Longhorns have only done three times in the conference’s 27-year history. He also understands his squad is capable of losing to Oklahoma State, so engaging in some preemptive lobbying would be unhelpful.
“There will be no College Football Playoff talk unless we play really well on Saturday and find a way to win,” he declared this week. “If that happens, we’ll have to have another conversation.” Many teams must compete, and the dust will fall where it is supposed to, so we’ll see what happens.”
Complaining would be pointless regardless. If Georgia, Michigan, Washington, and Florida State all win, the committee’s task will be made much easier, and Texas will have to accept its bad luck.
However, if any of the outcomes differ, the Longhorns will properly be kicking and screaming if they are left out.
If Alabama defeats Georgia, Texas will have a strong case to make: “Hey, didn’t we beat this team on their home field?” And it wasn’t even that close in the end. “Why should they trample on us?”
Assume Oregon defeats Washington on Friday night. For the last few weeks, the Ducks have undoubtedly looked better than everyone else in the country, according to the eye test. But does a 12-1 Oregon team with only two top-25 victories (Washington, Oregon State) have a better Playoff resume than Texas with three top-25 victories and the Alabama trump card?
Though losing to Iowa is perhaps the most unlikely scenario, how secure are the Wolverines? They had no non-conference opponents, and the Big Ten was just as bad as the Big 12 in the middle and bottom of the standings.
Then there’s Florida State, which, if it beats Louisville in the ACC title game, will finally debunk the myth that the CFP committee selects the four “best” teams.
The Seminoles were on track to be a national title contender until quarterback Jordan Travis suffered a horrific leg injury against North Alabama a few weeks ago. However, once that happens, they become a different squad that will almost surely not win a national championship and will be a two-touchdown underdog to Georgia in the semifinals.
Downgrading Florida State’s chances with Tate Rodemaker at quarterback isn’t a knock on the team or coach Mike Norvell’s incredible work in rebuilding the program into a national force. It’s just a reflection of how outstanding Travis was and how much he’ll be missed in a Playoff scenario. If the committee honestly considered its mission as selecting the four best teams, Texas is clearly a better team than current iteration of Florida State.
But, when it comes down to it, are the committee members really going to leave out a 13-0 team, even if they would all select Texas, Alabama, Ohio State, or anyone to upset the Seminoles on a neutral field tomorrow?
No, they almost definitely will not do so because picking a power conference team with a loss over a power conference club without a loss would be too contentious. Regardless of the conspiracy theories surrounding this committee and the measures they value, the end outcome is always the same: unbeaten teams get in, even if it comes at the price of someone with a better chance of winning the national title.
That is why Playoff expansion was required. The only disappointment is that it has taken this long for a very deserving club to be overlooked.
Unless something unforeseen happens on Saturday, Texas will be that team. It wasn’t a hard decision for the Longhorns to join the SEC, but a playoff rejection of this magnitude will be all the proof they needed that leaving the Big 12 behind was the only option.
