FSG could break their transfer model to eliminate a crucial Man City edge over Liverpool

As the saying goes, a week is a long time in football. Seven days ago, it appeared certain that Liverpool was determined to weather their injury storm without looking for reinforcements.

Seemingly from nowhere came news that talks with Naby Keïta over a new deal had broken down — and although the ECHO has knocked that back, suddenly the perceived landscape has changed. Where once the transfer trail was stone cold, new leads are sprouting, with links to Sander Berge of Sheffield United and Moisés Caicedo of Brighton this week, despite Jürgen Klopp’s insistence that Keïta is going nowhere.

A move for the Ecuadorian may not materialize, but he appears to have already confirmed one particular transfer trend in reportedly turning down Manchester United. When a player can choose between Liverpool and Manchester United — just as for those betting on Monday night’s matchup between the sides — the smart answer is always Liverpool.

Should Caicedo end up at Anfield, he would be an example of another FSG trend. Buying young has been a cornerstone of their transfer ethos, but Liverpool’s stuttering start to the season has exposed a strange quirk in the makeup of their midfield. Except for the supposedly wantaway Keïta, Liverpool’s midfielders are either yet to reach their peak or are approaching the end of it.

The notion of peak years is largely subjective, but last year The Athletic’s Tom Worville introduced a metric that tracks the share of total minutes played in each position for each age over the past 10 Premier League seasons.

Those numbers denote that the majority of Premier League midfielders are between 24 and 30, with peak years occurring from ages 24 to 26 — the sweet spot between energy and experience. Keïta, Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain, and Fabinho are all under 30, but only the Guinean at 27 years old is a significant distance from that milestone.

The other two will have crossed that threshold by October of next year. By contrast, Manchester City’s first and second choice for the physically and mentally demanding role of defensive midfielder — Rodri and Kalvin Phillips — are 26 years old, as is Jack Grealish. There’s a strong argument to say that even though Phil Foden is only 22, the experience he has already gained has put him ahead of the curve, with nearly a decade of peak years in front of him.

Fabinho was 26 when he struck that superb goal past Ederson against Manchester City in November 2019, the moment that laid the platform for a peerless march to the Premier League title. The Brazilian is hardly bound for the scrap heap, but he’s at the stage where he will begin to lose some athleticism. Considering the fine margins between the two sides, it could be a significant advantage for Pep Guardiola to have two men at the peak of their powers in such a key position compared to Klopp’s solitary lighthouse, whose light may have begun to dim.

Buying promising young players and allowing Klopp to mould them into superstars has worked well for FSG throughout the German’s reign. The difference financially between signing a player before their peak and during is significant. However, this strategy comes with its own inherent risks. There’s no guarantee any player will fully realize their potential. Inevitably there will be growing pains and times when young stars need to lean on their older counterparts.

Liverpool’s three wise men of midfield — Thiago Alcântara, James Milner, and captain Jordan Henderson — regularly offer guidance to the younger generation of Curtis Jones, Harvey Elliott, Tyler Morton, and Fabio Carvalho, and Stefan Bajectic. The quid pro quo is that the younger men provide the athleticism that the veterans can no longer muster. Liverpool’s two disjointed displays so far this season have illustrated what can happen if that midfield balance isn’t quite right.

As mentioned, the notion of peak years is subjective, and many will point to multiple exceptions to this rule who have continued to be exceptional in midfield well into their 30s.

Liverpool fans will need no reminding of the most famous examples, as they were put to the sword in the Champions League final by a Real Madrid side featuring 32-year-old Toni Kroos, 36-year-old Luka Modrić, and 30-year-old Casemiro in midfield. And yet, on many occasions during their run to the trophy, that trio looked every one of those 98 years. Against PSG, Chelsea, and Manchester City, they were overrun and on the ropes. A combination of muscle memory and Karim Benzema and Thibault Courtois playing as well as anyone in the world in their positions continually got them out of jail.

Casemiro could end up as the defining test case for this theory, having agreed to join former teammates Raphaël Varane and Cristiano Ronaldo at Manchester United. Unquestionably still a top performer, the difference in tactics and the more consistent demand for intensity in the Premier League will be a challenge for the Brazilian. It may appear as if Real Madrid has put their trust in youth, namely more than £100m worth of prime French midfielders in Eduardo Camavinga (19) and Aurélien Tchouaméni (22), but the expectation is initially it will be Federico Valverde (24) who becomes the new safety net for Kroos and Modrić.

Liverpool’s reported pursuit of Berge has raised eyebrows in some quarters, but perhaps it’s an acknowledgment of the need for a more ready-made addition to the midfield ranks. For all his quality, Jude Bellingham — a man entering only his fourth season as a professional — would not bridge that gap between eager youth and aged veterans.

FSG haven’t been known for flexibility within their transfer structure, but Berge becoming a Liverpool player could indicate they’ve realized that sometimes you have to buy peak players, as well as grow them.