Premier League predictions 2023-24: BBC Sport pundits pick their top four

Manchester City made it a hat-trick of Premier League titles when they won the Treble last season – now they have a new target.

Arsenal faltered in the final weeks of last season after spending 248 days at the top of the table – will they last the distance this time, and who else will figure at the top?

Can Manchester United build on their third-place finish by mounting a serious title bid for the first time since they were champions in 2013?

Newcastle are back in the Champions League this season after a 20-year absence, but will they stay in the top four? Could Liverpool be contenders again? Can Tottenham or Chelsea rise from mid-table under new managers? Or will anyone else be in the mix?

We asked 26 BBC TV and radio pundits to pick their top four, with explanations for their selections.

These predictions were made on the basis of how each squad shaped up on Thursday, 10 August, with more than three weeks to go until the transfer window shuts at 23:00 BST on 1 September.

Predictor	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Ellen White	Arsenal	Man City	Man Utd	Aston Villa
Stephen Warnock	Man City	Arsenal	Liverpool	Aston Villa
Fara Williams	Man City	Chelsea	Arsenal	Man Utd
Leon Osman	Man City	Man Utd	Arsenal	Liverpool
Steve Sidwell	Man City	Man Utd	Liverpool	Arsenal
Lindsay Johnson	Man City	Arsenal	Man Utd	Newcastle
Chris Waddle	Man City	Arsenal	Newcastle	Man Utd
Pat Nevin	Man City	Arsenal	Newcastle	Liverpool
Shay Given	Man City	Liverpool	Arsenal	Newcastle
Glenn Murray	Man City	Arsenal	Chelsea	Man Utd
Danny Gabbidon	Man City	Arsenal	Liverpool	Chelsea
Chris Sutton	Man City	Arsenal	Man Utd	Liverpool
Sue Smith	Man City	Arsenal	Man Utd	Liverpool
Dion Dublin	Man City	Arsenal	Man Utd	Liverpool
Michael Brown	Man City	Arsenal	Man Utd	Liverpool
Karen Bardsley	Man City	Arsenal	Man Utd	Liverpool
Jermaine Beckford	Man City	Arsenal	Man Utd	Liverpool
Matt Upson	Man City	Arsenal	Man Utd	Liverpool
Ashley Williams	Man City	Arsenal	Man Utd	Liverpool
Martin Keown	Man City	Arsenal	Liverpool	Man Utd
Micah Richards	Man City	Arsenal	Liverpool	Man Utd
Anita Asante	Man City	Arsenal	Liverpool	Man Utd
Nedum Onuoha	Man City	Arsenal	Liverpool	Man Utd
Danny Murphy	Man City	Arsenal	Liverpool	Man Utd
Clinton Morrison	Man City	Arsenal	Liverpool	Man Utd
Rob Green	Man City	Arsenal	Liverpool	Man Utd

Seven teams feature in the forecasted top fours, but only Manchester City and Arsenal feature in all 26.

In terms of who will win it, City are overwhelming favourites with 25 votes, while the Gunners get the other one.

Overall predicted ranking, using all 26 BBC predictions
1. Man City	2. Arsenal	3. Man Utd	4. Liverpool	=5. Chelsea	=5. Newcastle	7. Aston Villa
103 pts	74 pts	36 pts	33 pts	6 pts	6 pts	2 pts

(using system of 4 pts for a 1st place, 3 pts for 2nd, 2 pts for 3rd and 1 pt for 4th)

Man City – ‘The best squad, manager and striker’

Micah Richards: Their squad is still better than everyone else’s. They won’t win the Treble again, but they will win the Premier League.

Danny Gabbidon: They’ve not just got the best squad, they’ve got the best manager in Pep Guardiola and have the best striker on the planet in Erling Haaland.

Jermaine Beckford: The way they play makes it so hard to stop them, and how do you stop Haaland? He scored 52 goals in 54 games for City last season, and you can be sure his numbers will be incredible this season too.

Fara Williams: City are at the top for as long as Guardiola stays there.

Chris Sutton: The other top clubs have done some very good work in this transfer window but you can’t look past City for the title. Guardiola evolves something every year – some tweak to his tactics will emerge and another player always seems to step in and become key.

Chris Sutton joins Ashley Williams and Jason Mohammad on Final Score on Saturday, from 14:30 BST on the red button and the BBC Sport website, and from 16:30 on BBC Two.

Nedum Onuoha: They start the season perhaps looking a little short from two key players from the past couple of seasons but they still have a wealth of experience from winning the title.

Sue Smith: They’ve won five of the past six titles and have just made two great signings in Josko Gvardiol and Mateo Kovacic. I don’t think it matters that they have lost Ilkay Gundogan and Riyad Mahrez, because they still have so much quality. They’re the team everyone else has to beat.

Karen Bardsley: Kovacic gives them ball protection, retention and creation, which equals the control they want in games.

Matt Upson: City’s defence was awesome anyway, but they needed Gvardiol. The beauty is that all their centre-backs know they will play enough because they have so many matches, and Pep always picks them on form. He loves giving all his players that message and he is trying to do it in attack, too, in terms of playing two up front and using Julian Alvarez. It’s like he is telling him: ‘I can’t drop Haaland, but you have really impressed me and I will find a way of getting you in the team.’ It’s brilliant to see.

Michael Brown: Their defence looks very strong and if they can bring in another attacking option, they could be frightening.

Chris Waddle: The only thing that could stop City or let them down is complacency or fatigue, and I just don’t see either happening under Guardiola because they have got the experience and they have got the squad. It’s theirs to lose.

Arsenal – ‘I don’t expect last season’s form to disappear’

Last year, eight/23 pundits thought Arsenal would make the top four, although no-one tipped them to finish higher than fourth – they finished runners-up. This year, only four/26 think they will finish lower than second, and they are the only other team apart from City to be picked as champions.

Martin Keown: Of course I really want Arsenal to win the Premier League – as a pundit I am impartial, but as a former Arsenal player I am excited because last season was the first time in many years that we felt we were back in the fight and the team was competitive. It was a hell of a ride for the 248 days we were top of the table, and I don’t expect that form to disappear.

Arsenal have had a fantastic transfer window, too. I am not sure how Kai Havertz fits in, but I really like the look of Jurrien Timber and Declan Rice is one of England’s best players. I still think City will be too strong for Arsenal to overcome but I see the Gunners finishing a close second.

Jermaine Beckford: What an amazing signing Rice is. He has leadership qualities as well as skill and technique, and brings everything they need.

Micah Richards: I was close to picking Arsenal to win the title, because no team has ever won it four years in a row, but they are without Gabriel Jesus at the start of the season and I think that is just going to kill them.

Ellen White: Arsenal were so close last year and they have added to their squad really well. They need Jesus back because I don’t think Havertz is a number nine, but they won’t be short of goals – I am a big fan of Leandro Trossard.

Chris Sutton: I’m not reading much into the Community Shield, which sparked Arsenal’s wild celebrations – I got a lot of abuse on Twitter for asking if they had won the World Cup. I have them down to finish second but I’m not as convinced by them as some people are. They fell away badly at the end of last season and they still don’t have enough quality to topple City.

Fara Williams: They will find it very different playing in the Champions League. They rested players in the Europa League last season, and they won’t be able to do that this time.

Danny Gabbidon: Arsenal will be better for what happened to them at the business end of last season.

Nedum Onuoha: My top three in order are City, Arsenal and Liverpool, but any of them could win the league.

Steve Sidwell: Arsenal were immense last season and the culture and environment Mikel Arteta has created is evident on the pitch. They will fall short of the title again, but still secure another top-four spot.

Danny Murphy: I am a bit worried about United, in a positive way for them but a negative way for everyone else. I really like the business that Erik ten Hag has done.

Steve Sidwell: United will be the best of the rest. I’ve seen real, positive strides under Ten Hag and they seem to be getting settled more and more as the weeks go by. The takeover talk is a big hinderance that needs sorting as soon as possible though.

Dion Dublin: They will be up there pushing for the top spot this season. I’ve got them down to finish third but they can do even better if Rasmus Hojlund becomes the top-class goalscorer they need.

Dion Dublin and Ashley Williams are the guests on Football Focus on BBC One and the BBC Sport website at 12:00 BST on Saturday.

Chris Waddle: Hojlund is young and unproven, and he has not scored that many goals, but he will set the tempo for the team and let United play on the front foot – if he leads the press, everyone will back him up. But they need to be challenging for the title, not just the top four – and I don’t see that happening this season.

Chris Sutton: Hojlund is all about pace, isn’t he? They want him to be United’s answer to Erling Haaland but he does not have the pedigree of Haaland, in terms of his numbers. Mason Mount is a good signing but I just don’t see United being consistent enough to push City all the way, like Liverpool used to.

Fara Williams: For all their progress, their lack of goals concerns me. It might take Hojlund a while to adapt, especially because he is starting the season carrying an injury.

Stephen Warnock: United were bailed out massively last season by Marcus Rashford’s incredible form after the World Cup, but he couldn’t sustain that and I am not sure they have got anyone else who can take over when he’s not in top form.

Martin Keown: United lost eight away games in the league last season, compared to just one at Old Trafford. I am not sure you can change that overnight? If they can, they could finish higher than fourth.

Karen Bardsley: The addition of Andre Onana will provide defensive stability and will reinvigorate their attack with confident build-up play.

Danny Murphy: United’s biggest improvement is going to come away from home. It is inevitable because they will have more possession of the ball now they can play out from the back with Onana in goal. When teams try to press them, they will be better at playing through it.

Matt Upson: You can see United’s progress and the new signings fit into Ten Hag’s plan. But it is still only year two for him, Arsenal are a bit further along. We might see patches of form where you think ‘wow, United are a real threat for the title’ but also patches where they are not quite there.

Danny Murphy: I am really looking forward to seeing Alexis Mac Allister for Liverpool but losing Jordan Henderson is a blow. For me he still would have been the first name on the teamsheet. They will have to replace his physicality and the dynamism he brings to their midfield – the ability to press well and spot danger.

I’d certainly expect Liverpool to do more business before the transfer window shuts but the reason I think they’ll be better and back in the top four this time is because they have got brilliant options in the forward positions. Having Luis Diaz fit again is like having a new player. Defensively, they do need to become more solid but I am expecting them to come out of the blocks fast.

Shay Given: Liverpool are going to make a serious comeback this season. They have freshened it up in midfield of course, but I just think they will be stronger everywhere and hungry to get back to competing at the top of the table.

Danny Murphy and Shay Given join Mark Chapman for MOTD2 this Sunday at 22:30 BST on BBC One and the BBC Sport website for highlights of Brentford v Tottenham and Chelsea v Liverpool.

Chris Sutton: Scoring goals won’t be a problem but their defence was their weakness last season. The key to them changing that is Virgil van Dijk and whether he can get his best form back. I am not sure he has ever fully recovered from his serious knee injury in October 2020.

Danny Gabbidon: I’m expecting a much more consistent season but they won’t challenge if Jurgen Klopp doesn’t find the right balance between attack and defence.

Ellen White: I’m not convinced by Liverpool. It felt like everyone has figured them out.

Stephen Warnock: Liverpool desperately need to bring in players.

Leon Osman: They have lost a lot of leadership over the summer and they still haven’t got enough energy in midfield.

Anita Asante: The frontline and the backline are still pretty consistent, it is the midfield which is a bit of an unknown at the moment.

Martin Keown: For Liverpool it’s about how the other players stand up to the loss to that dressing room of James Milner and Henderson. I don’t think you can underestimate the impact there. And, where they ruled supreme with meticulous purchases by Klopp at the beginning of his tenure, you just feel a bit concerned that they’ve lost their way a little bit in the transfer market.

Chris Waddle: They look a bit thin on experience in the middle of the park. The way they play, they will score loads of goals but concede a lot too – I can see them being the Premier League’s top scorers, but they probably have the worst defence of the top five.

Pat Nevin: I’ve got to be absolutely honest, I haven’t got a clue how Chelsea are going to do, and that’s unusual. Sometimes, though, you have to put your hands up and say it is so random that they are just as likely to be top four or top six as they are to be the same as they were last season – in the bottom half, and have a nightmare.

Danny Gabbidon: They’ve got a very good squad of players and now they have a manager who is capable of getting the best out of them.

Fara Williams: With Chelsea not in the Champions League, and Mauricio Pochettino bringing the group together, they have a real chance to focus on the Premier League. He has done it before, with Tottenham… and they might surprise a few people.

Anita Asante: I haven’t put Chelsea in my top four but I have a sneaky feeling that not being in Europe will help Pochettino’s rebuild, like it did when Antonio Conte won the Premier League in his first season in 2016-17. They only really have one thing to play for.

Stephen Warnock: Chelsea are going to improve, definitely. They could sign another four players before the end of the window and suddenly we all look stupid for not putting them in the top four. They will be close anyway, because of Pochettino and how he is trying to change the culture within the squad – they looked better when I saw them in pre-season and if they spend more money and bring in two or three top quality players then I think they will get fourth ahead of Villa.

Pat Nevin: It’s a completely new group and they are still very young. I can see what they are trying to do, which is develop a whole bunch of young players, and it makes sense, but that’s not something that makes you win titles straight away. Somehow they need to get back into Europe, and back into the top four – but it is asking a lot to do that with a group of players where very few of them have previously done that.

One other question remains, which is Romelu Lukaku. I cannot see him staying, but there is always the chance that something leftfield will happen. There are some big name Brazilian and French centre-forwards that might be on the move, so you just never know. But of course you can never factor it in to these predictions because you don’t know if it will come off.

Newcastle – ‘This might be a stumble on the way’

Newcastle didn’t make anyone’s top four last season but ended up fourth. This time, four pundits think they will make it, and two of them have them down to finish third.

Danny Murphy: Newcastle are on their way forward so this is not a criticism of them – if they make the top four again it wouldn’t surprise me, but I don’t think they will. The main reason I see them dropping off a bit in the Premier League is their Champions League fixtures – the intensity and huge physicality they play with means playing that way twice a week will be hard. They have made some really good signings, don’t get me wrong, but I still think they are short of a centre-half or, ideally, two if they have any injuries there.

Leon Osman: Along with Arsenal, they were the surprise package last year. They have continued to strengthen and the possibilities seem endless, but this might be a stumble on the way, especially with Champions League football. I still think top six is progress.

Martin Keown: They are not used to European football but the excitement of what they are doing might just take them on a ride, which might mean it won’t affect them as much.

Chris Waddle: Eddie Howe has done a great job because, when you look at their team on paper compared to the other sides up there, you wouldn’t say Newcastle are a top-four team. I’m expecting more of the same this year, though, which is why I am backing them to make it again. They were terrific at home, they were solid defensively and there was a real buzz about the way they played.

The only problem I see with them is still who is going to get them goals, because they don’t score enough. Callum Wilson is a poacher but he has fitness issues, and Alexander Isaak seems to prefer to come and join in the build-up.