Tony Mowbray must solve one major issue, according to statistics, in order to improve Sunderland’s results.
Sunderland’s tendency of conceding first in games is causing them to struggle.
‘It was almost as if we needed a slap before reacting to the fight.’ Tony Mowbray’s thoughts following Sunderland’s defeat against Stoke City earlier this month might have been spoken on numerous occasions this season.
For all of the Black Cats’ promising start to the season – they currently rank seventh in the table, with 22 points from 14 games, two more than at the same point last year – they have far too often found themselves playing catch-up. Sunderland, Middlesbrough, Preston North End, Stoke City, and Sheffield Wednesday have all allowed the first goal in nine of their 14 games.
However, only one Championship team has conceded first more than Sunderland and the rest of that group, and that team is QPR, who have done so ten times. Sunderland has conceded first in five of its seven home games, making it a particular problem at the Stadium of Light.
Is it a mental problem? Possibly. Do Sunderland truly need, if not a slap, then the jolt of falling behind? Maybe.
Sunderland, thankfully, has demonstrated incredible resiliency. Not least because the Black Cats have come from behind three times to win, most recently in Saturday’s 3-1 home win over Norwich City.
Sunderland’s nine points after conceding first place them level with Preston and Hull City at the top of that standings, but the Black Cats are the only team to come from behind three times. Sunderland also came from behind to overcome Rotherham United at the Stadium of Light in August and QPR in September, in addition to Norwich.
Sunderland have only scored first in four games (the goalless draw at Coventry City is not included in the conceded/scored first statistics). Only two Championship clubs, QPR and Sheffield Wednesday, both on the verge of relegation, have scored first on fewer occasions, with those two clubs doing so only three times.
Sunderland, on the other hand, has a perfect record when they score first, having beaten Southampton 5-0, Blackburn 3-1 at Ewood Park, Sheffield Wednesday 3-0 at Hillsborough, and Watford 2-0 on Wearside. The issue is that they don’t take the initiative nearly enough.
I’ve already emphasized Sunderland’s remarkable recovery abilities, but they must not grow unduly reliant on eliminating deficits. It is far preferable to grasp the initiative and press the advantage – statistics show the benefits of doing so.
