Week 8 of the 2023 NFL schedule includes a matchup of 3-4 teams trying to break two-game losing streaks, with the New Orleans Saints and Indianapolis Colts squaring off at Lucas Oil Stadium.
After trailing the Jacksonville Jaguars by 15 points in the fourth quarter last Thursday, the Saints tied the game with 6:42 remaining, only to have Trevor Lawrence un-tie it for good with a touchdown pass to Christian Kirk with just over three minutes left.
New Orleans moved the ball to the Jags’ six-yard line and had a first-and-goal in the game’s final minute, but still came up short thanks to a dropped touchdown pass from tight end Foster Moreau to seal a 31-24 defeat and fall below .500.
The Colts’ loss to the Browns in Week 7 might have been even more painful. With backup quarterback Gardner Minshew playing in place of Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis nearly overcame a game-wrecking performance by Cleveland edge rusher Myles Garrett, leading the Browns deep into the fourth quarter.
Indy still lost. The Browns drove 80 yards for a game-winning touchdown on a drive aided by two questionable penalties on the Colts’ defense and capped off by a Kareem Hunt TD with 15 seconds remaining.
On the futures board, neither team is considered a Super Bowl contender. New Orleans has the 15th-best title odds at 60/1, while Indianapolis ranks 25th on the title oddsboard at 190/1.
Moneyline
Want to impress your friends with some mostly useless info this weekend? Ask which NFL team is the only one to score at least 20 points in every game through the first seven weeks, then enjoy yourself as none of them mention the Colts.
Then get a load of their puzzled expressions when you tell them you’re taking the Saints on the moneyline.
Perhaps last week’s most surprising development was how productive the Colts were against the Browns, as first-year coach Shane Steichen oversaw an offense that gained 456 yards against arguably the league’s best defense, even with a backup quarterback.
In his third start since taking over for the injured Richardson, Minshew threw for 305 yards and two touchdown passes and ran for two more scores – again triggering conversations about whether there really are 32 better NFL quarterbacks than Indianapolis’ backup.
If Minshew is ever going to rise above being a well-traveled understudy with cool hair, he must protect the ball better. He lost three fumbles against the Browns, and he has turned the ball over eight times in his last two starts, both losses. He also threw a game-clinching pick-six against the Saints in his final start with the Eagles less than 10 months ago, when he filled in for starter Jalen Hurts in a Week 17 loss.
The part of Minshew’s performance last week that seems more likely to repeat is the turnovers, especially against a Saints defense that ranks in the top five in total takeaways (12). New Orleans quarterback Derek Carr may not be anywhere close to the league’s most reliable, but in a game that’s likely to be close, bettors should feel comfortable siding with him over a backup QB who can’t take care of the ball.
Point Spread
This game’s point spread is small enough that both teams have been listed as favorites during the week. The Colts entered the weekend as slight home underdogs, and we’re taking the Saints to cover as 1-point favorites.
Carr was visibly frustrated on the sideline with his teammates during last week’s loss, and it’s fair to wonder if chemistry issues could doom the chances of a team that isn’t loaded with elite playmakers.
But it’s even more fair to wonder if the Colts can hold up in the secondary, where they’ve continually had to make adjustments due to injuries and a suspension. 
Rookie corner JuJu Brents is expected to miss Sunday’s game after suffering a quad injury against the Browns. Darrell Baker Jr. spelled Brents and was picked on often by the Browns – in particular on the game-winning drive when the second-year undrafted corner allowed a 30-yard completion and was later flagged for consecutive (albeit questionable) penalties.
Indianapolis was already playing without starting cornerback Dallis Flowers, who is out for the season with an Achilles injury. They also cut Isaiah Rodgers Sr. before the season after he was suspended for gambling.
Saints wide receiver Chris Olave is expected to play on Sunday despite his arrest on suspicion of reckless driving. While he hasn’t been nearly as explosive as he was during his rookie season, he and Carr should hook up just enough to get Carr to stop making frowny faces on the sideline and for Olave to be the difference-maker in a close New Orleans road win.
Over/Under
In a game played on an indoor track, the temptation is to glance at the Over/Under and wager on a bunch of points being scored. The smart money is on succumbing to that temptation.
The status of Colts running back Zack Moss will be worth paying attention to – he missed Wednesday’s practice with an injury – but Jonathan Taylor saw his workload increase against Cleveland and was productive, rushing for 75 yards on 18 carries and catching three passes for 45 yards.
Taylor doing more bodes well for a Colts offense that moved the ball well last week. That’s also been a good sign for the Over since Minshew took over as the starter.
New Orleans has had all sorts of offensive issues – from Carr throwing too often, to having an offensive line struggling in every phase, to Alvin Kamara missing the season’s first three games.
That said, Kamara is coming off his best game of 2023 and returned to practice on Thursday after missing Wednesday’s with an illness. With their most recent game coming last Thursday, the Saints have had extra time to figure out ways to build on what they did in the second half against Jacksonville.
That game against the Jags broke a 12-game run of Unders hitting in games involving New Orleans. The Saints’ streak of helping cash the Over should extend to two in Indianapolis.
Player Prop
Olave had a bad week off the field, but he should have a productive enough day against the Colts and their diminished secondary to go over his receiving yards total of 60.5 on this game’s prop board.
Olave has exceeded this number four times this season, and he barely missed it against the Jags, posting 57 yards last Thursday night on a whopping 15 targets – his most in a game this season and his fifth game with double-digit targets.
With the Saints offense having extra time to prepare for a game that profiles as a shootout, Olave should clear this receiving yardage total with ease.
