The Week 4 NFL plan for the 2023 season is stacked with extraordinary matchups, and we’ve got you secured with what you would like to know heading into the end of the week. Our NFL Country correspondents bring us the greatest keys to each amusement and a striking expectation for each matchup.
Furthermore, ESPN Stats & Data gives a huge stat to know and a wagering piece for each challenge, and our Football Control File (FPI) goes interior the numbers with a amusement projection. Analytics essayist Seth Walder picks out each matchup’s greatest X figure, and daydream investigator Eric Testy hands out supportive daydream football intel. At last, Walder and Grouchy deliver us last score picks for each diversion. Everything you need to know is here in one spot to assist you get prepared for a stacked end of the week of NFL football.
Both offenses have battled to begin the season. The Pumas have scored fair two touchdowns in their past eight quarters and rank 29th in third-down change rate (29.7%). The Hawks have scored as it were two first-half touchdowns in three recreations and overseen fair six focuses last week. One of these groups getting into the conclusion zone early may decide the result. — Mike DiRocco
Bold forecast:
The final time Kyle Pitts played in London — in 2021 against the Planes — the tight conclusion scored his to begin with career landing (and as it were TD that season). Back within the U.K., Pitts will discover the conclusion zone twice. Jacksonville has given up two scores to tight closes over the past two weeks, so the opportunity might be there for Pitts to score for the primary time since Oct. 30, 2022. — Michael Rothstein
Stat to know:
Since Week 9 of final season, Pumas quarterback Trevor Lawrence has driven the alliance in QBR tossing exterior the numbers, recording an amazing 15 landing passes to fair one interferences. In that span, Atlanta’s defense positions 26th in adversary QBR exterior the numbers whereas permitting 11 passing touchdowns with no interceptor.
NFL in London:
Birds of prey vs. Pumas
The Birds of prey take on the Pumas at London’s notorious Wembley Stadium on Sunday at 9:
30 a.m. ET solely on ESPN+. Subscribe to ESPN+ and get get to to live NFL recreations, highlights, originals, premium articles and analysis.
More:
‘Toy Story Funday Football’ broadcast »
Matchup X calculate:
Birds of prey running backs Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier. As great as Robinson has been this year, the Falcons’ running assault hasn’t been overwhelmingly proficient, positioning just 11th in anticipated focuses included (EPA) per planned carry (.01). To overcome the team’s pass-game insufficiencies, Robinson and Allgeier ought to be extraordinary. — Walder
Wounds:
Birds of prey | Pumas
What to know for daydream:
The Falcons’ defense has been neighborly to tight closes, giving up the fourth-most daydream focuses to that position this season. That plays into the hands of the Jaguars’ Evan Engram, who positions to begin with among tight closes in yards after capture (132), moment in gatherings (18) and third in accepting yards (173) this season. See Week 4 rankings. — Grouchy
Wagering piece:
The Hawks have secured six straight gatherings and are 7-1 against the spread (ATS) all-time against the Pumas. Studied more.
Matchup must-reads:
Hawks offense hasn’t ‘skimmed the surface’ through Week 3 … Lloyd (thumb) out following two diversions in London … What’s off-base with the Pumas?
Storyline to observe:
Whether the Bills can moderate down the Dolphins’ offense is the huge address going into the diversion, and whereas Buffalo’s capacity to induce weight and turnovers will be key, its offense playing keep-away would offer assistance. Buffalo’s offense is third in normal time of ownership (35:
45). And whereas winning convincingly hasn’t been a issue for either group, with the Dolphins outscoring their rivals by 59 focuses and the Bills outscoring theirs by 56, all three diversions between Buffalo and Miami final year were chosen by three points or less. So another near diversion may happen. — Alaina Getzenberg
Striking expectation:
The Bills have not allowed 500 yards of offense in a regular-season diversion since Sept. 20, 2015, but that streak will conclusion Sunday as the Dolphins — who are averaging 550.3 yards per amusement — proceed to surge. — Marcel Louis-Jacques
Stat to know:
Bills QB Josh Allen is 9-2 in his career against the Dolphins (counting playoffs), his most wins against any group. He may be a perfect 6-0 at domestic vs. Miami.
Matchup X calculate:
Dolphins edge rushers Jaelan Phillips and Bradley Chubb. They have fair 1.5 sacks combined this season, but both rank within the best 15 in pass surge win rate at edge. Both offenses ought to be unstable, so the Dolphins’ pass surge might allow Miami an edge in the event that it can get to Allen. — Walder
Wounds:
Dolphins | Bills
What to know for daydream:
The Bills have the third-highest pass surge win rate and had nine sacks against the Commanders in Week 3. They’ll confront a challenge his week, in spite of the fact that. The Dolphins’ hostile line positions 12th in pass piece win rate, and Miami quarterback Tua Tagovailoa has the speediest normal time to toss in the alliance (2.2 seconds). See Week 4 rankings. — Testy
Wagering chunk:
The Dolphins lead the NFL with a +18.0 cover edge, the second-best check within the NFL through three diversions in the past seven seasons (2022 Pumas were +19.5). They are 3-0 ATS. Examined more.
Matchup must-reads:
Dolphins’ Waddle clears concussion convention, set to return … McDaniel says revenge not on Dolphins’ minds vs. Bills … Three storylines forming gigantic Bills-Dolphins AFC East standoff … Bernard off to notable begin in supplanting Edmunds
Storyline to observe:
As it were six of 251 groups have made the playoffs after beginning 0-3, and this matchup highlights two of the four remaining winless establishments. Both groups endured blowout misfortunes in Week 3, as well. The Broncos permitted Miami to score 70 points and pick up 726 yards, whereas the Bears are looking to bounce back from a 31-point street misfortune to Kansas City and snap the NFL’s longest dynamic losing streak at 13 recreations. It has been nearly a year since the Bears won a amusement (Oct. 24, 2022, at Modern Britain). — Courtney Cronin
Bold prediction:
A reeling Broncos defense — last in almost each major factual category — will pillage Bears QB Justin Areas at slightest twice and catch an interferences. After surrendering 70 focuses to Miami, the Broncos confront the league’s 27th-ranked scoring offense, as the Bears are averaging a not-so-robust 15.7 focuses. — Jeff Legwold
Stat to know:
The Bears have permitted 106 focuses through three recreations, the second-most in establishment history (111 in 2003). Chicago’s most focuses permitted through four diversions is 134 (1964).
Matchup X calculate:
Areas. Excuse the self-evident reply, but he’s the clear X calculate for the Bears. Chicago has other issues, no question. But a league-worst 21 QBR from Areas needs to progress. — Walder
Injuries:
Broncos | Bears
What to know for daydream:
Russell Wilson positions eighth in passing yards and 6th in landing passes, and he midpoints 18.4 daydream focuses. His touchdown-to-interception proportion in his first three diversions has been 6-1, and he has tossed for 300-plus yards in continuous recreations for the primary time since Weeks 3 and 4 of the 2020 season. It bodes well for Broncos wide recipients Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy and Marvin Mims Jr. against the Bears, as quarterbacks have scored the fifth-most focuses against them. See Week 4 rankings. — Grouchy
Wagering chunk:
The Broncos are 1-8 ATS as favorites since the begin of final season and 1-9 ATS in their past 10 recreations in that part. Perused more.
Matchup must-reads:
0-3 Bears all of a sudden a key survival test for Broncos … Bears OC commends Areas for taking leadership role … Interior the as it were 600-point offense ever … Bears’ Eberflus plans to call cautious plays rest of season
Storyline to watch:
QB Deshaun Watson has not won (or misplaced) successive diversions since joining the Browns. He can finally put together a winning streak on the off chance that he can outduel Lamar Jackson, who is 2-0 against Watson in head-to-head matchups dating to Watson’s time with the Texans. Whereas Watson hasn’t crushed Jackson, he did direct the Browns past a Tyler Huntley-led Ravens group in December. — Jake Trotter
Striking expectation:
Jackson will be held without a landing. He has totaled more touchdowns against the Browns than any other group in his six-year career, tossing for 11 and running for four. But the Browns’ defense has given up as it were one landing this season and hasn’t permitted one in Cleveland. — Jamison Hensley
Stat to know:
The Browns have not permitted a TD in two domestic recreations this season (outscored opponents 51-6 in Cleveland). The 2006 Broncos and 2000 Dolphins are the as it were groups this century to not permit a touchdown in their first three domestic recreations.
EDITOR’S PICKS
Our extreme direct to Falcons-Jaguars in London:
Enormous questions, QB breakdowns, X components and picks
142dESPN.com
Reid’s QB Hot Board for this year’s NFL draft:
Positioning best 12 passers, plus qualities and shortcomings
17dJordan Reid
Which quarterback seem get benched first? Barnwell ranks the candidates from 1 to 6
144dBill Barnwell
Matchup X figure:
Browns cornerback Martin Emerson Jr. His 0.4 yards per scope snap is best among all exterior corners with at slightest 75 coverage snaps. — Walder
Wounds:
Ravens | Browns
What to know for daydream:
The Browns’ defense has permitted the least daydream focuses per amusement to quarterbacks and a completion rate of less than 50%. Cleveland’s defense too positions to begin with in run halt rate. See Week 4 rankings. — Touchy
Wagering chunk:
The Ravens are 18-3-1 ATS as underdogs since 2018, the leading record in the NFL (12-10 through and through). Jackson is 11-1-1 ATS as an underdog (9-4 outright), the leading cover rate and winning rate as an underdog by any quarterback with at slightest 10 begins in that part. Perused more.
Matchup must-reads:
Jackson upset around Ravens’ failure to finish … Watson steers Browns to bounce-back win … Ravens’ Clowney:
No ‘bad blood’ exists with Browns … How Browns are moving forward at RB after Chubb’s damage
